China's Rapidly Declining Births and Child Markets

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China's Rapidly Declining Births and Child Markets

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Note: Price is US$150

  • 2018 data indicates that total births have fallen dramatically from 17.3 in 2017 to 15.2 in 2018.

  • Continuing trends indicate that the number of births in 2028 will be nearly one-third (31%) lower than 2017 (17.3 million to 11.8 million)

  • The key driver of this continued decline in total births is that the number of women of childbearing age (ages 15-49) will fall by 56 million between 2018 and 2033 (346 million to 291 million) and this cannot change since all women of childbearing age in those years are already alive today.

  • The day care/preschool industry peaked in 2017 with 84 million 0-4-year olds. This will decline to 63 million by 2028 and further to 57.4 million by 2033, with an annual rate of decline of -2.8%. This will, no doubt, also hit the baby product market.

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