China's Demographic Future - Chapter Three

Chpt 3 shop page.jpg
Chpt 3 shop page.jpg

China's Demographic Future - Chapter Three

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This Section examines the expected trends in birthrates, number of women of childbearing age, death rates by age and gender and, finally, migration and their collective impact on both National Population as well as the population of individual provinces. The most problematic of these is of course birthrates as these can change as a result of government policy, specifically, the potential relaxation of the one child policy, which cannot be forecast. Overlaying this is the decline that will occur in the number of women of child bearing age which more than offsets the relaxation in the one child policy.

This Section also looks at the ‘Gender’ Issue. At present it is not really a problem as the gender bias is not great in the existing adult population. But the key word is ‘existing’. The gender bias in births over the last decade has been growing and the issue is important by 2027 and certain serious by 2037.

This Section then looks at the impact of the above factors together with province to province migration on the Province level populations. It concludes with a discussion of the effects of the changes to the one child policy in 2014 on total births in future years.

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