TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1 : WHY CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE? 20
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Introduction 20
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The structure of this book 23
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Chapter 2: The Present 23
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Chapter Three: Overall Population Trends 26
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Chapter Four: Urban and Rural Populations 28
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Chapter Five: The Evolving Consumer and Household Profile 31
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Chapter Six: Education 32
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Chapter Seven: The Labour force. 34
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Chapter Eight: Demographics and GDP 37
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Chapter Nine: Household incomes 39
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Chapter Ten: Household Expenditure 42
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Chapter Eleven: Health Care 45
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To conclude 46
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CHAPTER 2 : THE PRESENT 47
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Key Points in this Section are: 47
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Introduction 49
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Geographical organization of the population 51
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The Rural-Urban Migration 53
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The Existing Size and Age Profile of the Population 55
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Gender Balance and Age 59
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Age Profile and Changing Life Stage Segments 60
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Urban Age / Life Stage Profile 64
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Rural Age/Life Stage Profile 66
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Housing. 67
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The Labour Force 68
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Education 71
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Health 73
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Household Incomes 73
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Average and Median Household Incomes 74
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Distribution of Households by Gross Income Segments 76
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Propensity to Save/Spend 79
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Consumer Spending 81
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The provinces 82
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The Cities 85
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To Conclude 88
CHAPTER 3 OVERALL POPULATION TRENDS 89
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Key Points in this Section Are: 89
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Introduction 91
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The Projected Total Population Trend 93
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The Changing Overall Age Profile 95
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Births 99
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The Birth Rate 99
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The Number of Women Aged 15 to 49 years 104
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Total Births 107
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The Birth Rate Scenarios 108
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To Conclude 121
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Methodology Note: 122
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Deaths 123
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Gender Issues 124
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Province Level Population Scenario and Changes 127
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Summary 130
CHAPTER 4 URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS 132
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Key Points in This Section are: 132
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Introduction 133
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Projected Growth of the Urban Population to 2045. 135
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Age Profile of the Urban and Rural Populations in 2020 139
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Projected Change in the Size of Key Age Segments to 2045 141
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Urban 141
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Rural 144
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Implications for Housing. 146
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The Cities 149
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Summary 151
CHAPTER 5 THE EVOLVING CONSUMER AND HOUSEHOLD PROFILE 154
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Key Points in this Section are: 154
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Introduction: 155
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First – A Measurement Issue 156
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The Number of Households 157
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The Number of Persons in the Household 159
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Households with Children 161
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The Age/Lifestyle Stages 163
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Urban Age / Life Stage Profile. 166
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Rural Age / Life Stage Profile. 170
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The provinces 171
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Summary: 174
CHAPTER 6 EDUCATION 175
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Key Points in this Section are: 175
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Introduction 176
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The Historic and Current Education Profile 178
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Education Index and Productivity 182
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Education Index for China 184
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China’s Global Position on Education 187
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The provinces. 189
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Summary 193
CHAPTER 7 THE LABOUR FORCE 195
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Key Points in this Section are: 195
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Introduction: 197
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Changing Working Age Parameters 198
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Propensity to be employed. 201
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Implications for the Size of the Labour Force 205
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The Rural Labour Force 206
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The Urban Labour force. 209
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The changing Age and Education profile of the urban worker 213
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Implications in Terms of the Overall Supply of Labour 214
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Workers per Household and Implication for Household income. 215
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Dependents per Worker 216
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The proportion of the population that is employed. 218
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Employment and Fixed Capital Investment 218
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Summary 220
CHAPTER 8 DEMOGRAPHICS AND GDP 224
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Key Points in this Section are: 224
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Introduction 226
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The Demographic Drivers – Labour Supply and Education 228
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The Supply of Labour 228
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Education 232
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The Economic Driver of Productivity and GDP 234
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Fixed Capital Investment 235
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Projected Trend in Productivity, Labour Force and Total GDP 236
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The provinces. 242
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Education 242
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Fixed Capital Investment per Worker per Annum 244
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Productivity per Worker 247
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Total Real GDP and Growth Rates by Province 248
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Summary 250
CHAPTER 9 HOUSEHOLD INCOMES 252
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Key Points in this Section are: 252
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Introduction and Methodology Revisited 255
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Expenditure Component 255
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Historic and Projected levels of Household Income and wages 258
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Average and Median Incomes 258
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Distribution of Households by Income 260
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Wages 263
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Private Consumption Expenditure as a Proportion of GDP and Propensity to Spend 264
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Forecasting Household Incomes 266
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The Distribution of Households by Income 272
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First a methodology point 272
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Urban Households 273
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Rural Households 274
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The relative value of the urban income segments 275
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Combing Age / Life Stage Change with Changing Affluence 276
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The provinces. 279
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Average Urban Household Income by Province 279
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Province Share of Total Earned Urban Household Income 281
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Province Share of Affluent Households 282
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The Cities where the Affluent Households are located. 283
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Summary 285
CHAPTER 10 : HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE PATTERNS 287
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Key Points in this Section are: 287
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Introduction 288
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Overall propensity to spend by Income level. 290
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Propensity to Spend and Spending Pattern 292
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Total Market Size and Growth by Expenditure Category and Income Segment 297
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The provinces 301
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The Relative Importance of Provinces in terms of Spending 301
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The difference in Spending Patterns by Province 302
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Summary 304
CHAPTER 11 HEALTH EXPENDITURE 306
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Introduction 306
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The Potential Demand for healthcare in China 307
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The Incidence/Prevalence of Oncology and Chronic Conditions 307
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The Age Profile of the Population 310
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Index of potential Healthcare Demand 311
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The Future Cost of Health Care and Who Pays. 313
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Projected total expenditure on health 314
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Who Pays? 318
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Summary 320
CHAPTER 12 IN CONCLUSION 322
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Introduction 322
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The Three Child Policy 323
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The Changing Life Stage Profile of the Population 326
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The Child Segment 329
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The Young Adult 330
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The Family Stage Age Segment 331
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The Working-age empty Nester 332
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The Retired Segment 332
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The Changing Pattern of Affluence 334
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Share of Value. 337
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The Labour Force – it is not shrinking (at least not where it is important). 339
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To Conclude 343
APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY 344
Sources 344
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Cleaning 345
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Timeliness of Data 346
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Modelling 347
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Overall population change 348
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Education Profile of the adult population 350
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Household Size 350
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Labour Force 351
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GDP Forecast 351
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Household Incomes 353
APPENDIX B: DEFINITIONS 356
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The Hukou 356
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The One-Child Policy 357
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Provinces, Prefectures, Counties, Cities, Towns, Townships and Villages 359
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Urban and Rural 360